Additionally, new student loan repayment requirements will begin to impact many consumers starting in October. Compensation growth is decelerating, pandemic savings are dwindling, and household debt is rising rapidly. However, this trend cannot hold, in our view. US consumer spending has held up remarkably well this year despite elevated inflation and higher interest rates. We forecast that real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024. This outlook is associated with numerous factors, including, elevated inflation, high interest rates, dissipating pandemic savings, mounting consumer debt, lower government spending, and the resumption of mandatory student loan repayments. The Conference Board forecasts that US economic growth will buckle under mounting headwinds early next year, leading to a very short and shallow recession. The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy Human Capital Benchmarking & Data Analytics. AI: Opportunities and Implications for Human Capital.
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